I’ve been reading a lot about Iran over the last week. The news really started last Monday when the run up to the election began to get heated. Needless-to-say, things haven’t cooled off since then and I don’t see them cooling anytime soon.
That said, a lot of folks are talking about what’s going on in Iran as an all out revolution, like Andrew Sullivan for example. It’s not, at least not yet. It has the makings of what could become a revolution but it isn’t one yet.
I’d like to lay out why I don’t believe this is a revolution yet and what I think the government of Iran can and will do to stop this from becoming one.
First, the protesters are still focusing on the stolen election. The rhetoric needs to shift away from the election and the candidate to the tyranny of the state and why it should be dismantled. Until that happens, this isn’t a revolution. Until the people in the streets begin chanting down with the Ayatollah, make Iran a democracy; this isn’t a revolution.
The most obvious reason for this is simple. People aren’t shouting for a revolution. They’re shouting for their votes.
Now, the Ayatollah is in a precarious position. If he lets these protests spin even more out of control the rhetoric is sure to shift away from the election and focus instead on his government. He must, if he wants to remain in power, stop this from happening. There are several steps he can take to calm the situation and I’m going to predict what they are now.
1. In the next 4 days (by Friday for sure but probably starting in the next few days) he will call for an immediate, quick, and, thorough recount of all the ballots. At this time all the ballots will be brought to a central location and “counted.”
This reinforces the fact that the entire reason for the protests is the election and that he is taking them seriously.
The next one depends on what the protests do. I don’t imagine them slowing down anytime soon though.
2. The police come down hard on the protesters late in the week and possibly into the weekend (Wednesday through Friday). Under the guise of protection Iran, protesters are beaten and shot with greater frequency than we’ve seen yet.
While the treatment of protesters has not been perfect it has not been near as bad as it could be either. There have been reports of widespread beatings however; shootings have been limited to a few incidences. Although, both beatings and shootings seem to be ramping up the longer the protesting continues. That’s part of the reason I’m predicting a serious ramp up in violence by the end of the week.
3. If the protests continue or get worse as the week wears on the military is called in to stop them over the weekend (Saturday and Sunday).
I believe the ramp up in police violence and the addition of the military will be done to see how serious the protesters are. The reaction of the protesters will determine the Ayatollah’s next move early next week and possibly the outcome of the election.
Now, the addition of the military is contentious. It may not happen because it could hasten the shift toward decrying the government in general instead of just the election. I think it would but I think the Ayatollah will do it anyway.
The addition of the military will do one of two things: 1. It will break the protesters or 2. it will make the demonstrations worse and show the Ayatollah how serious the protesters are.
4. This one depends on what the protester’s reaction is to the increased violence and addition of the military. In the unlikely event that they break, the Ayatollah will stand by the election of Ahmadinejad. In the more likely scenario in which the protesters remain, Ahmadinejad will get thrown under the bus, and thrown hard. The Ayatollah will say that Mousavi won the election by whatever margin he decides and that Ahmadinejad and his campaign fixed the election by stuffing ballot boxes. He’ll find it deplorable but conveniently Ahmadinejad isn’t in Iran so they can’t exactly charge him. (This all starts next Monday – Wednesday and is done by next Friday)
What happens now is interesting. (From here on I’m operating under the assumption that the protesters didn’t break) At this point the calls for revolution have gone out but they haven’t been out long enough for them to have caught on en-mass yet. The next thing that happens is simple: Mousavi accepts the Ayatollah’s recount and calls for an end to the protests and the police/military violence. Most of the protesters and police stop.
The protesters will stop because after a weekend of bloody confrontations with the military and police they will accept the election of their candidate as a victory, feel vindicated and righteous, and frankly, they’ll be given an easy excuse not to fight anymore.
Don’t be mistaken though, this is really a win for the Ayatollah. He will remain in power and conservatives will still dominate the majority of the Iranian government – literally all of it but the presidency. His only loss is his friend Ahmadinejad but, everyone has to make choices.
The next question is, why will it happen this way? That’s easy: the Ayatollah remains in power and the people get what they want. The Ayatollah isn’t an idiot. He could try and crush the protests and not give the protesters their president but then, in the next three weeks, he will be dealing with a full scale uprising and that is unpredictable. Maintaining the status quo through a revolution is much more difficult than maintaining it through a contested election. If he is at all prudent, which I believe he is, he’ll stop this thing before it comes to that.
If the Iranian people want a revolution they need to convince their neighbors now, not this weekend.
